CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS BOSTON CELTICS L i v e STREAM
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS BOSTON CELTICS L i v e STREAM
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GAME 5: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS BOSTON CELTICS L i v e STREAM
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Everyone has their favorite games within series. Game 1 of some
series -- including Houston-Golden State -- can take an outsized
importance. Game 5 of a 2-2 series is pivotal. After that, one team will
be facing elimination, so the stakes are naturally higher.
I've
always been partial to Game 4 of a 2-1 series. It determines the entire
feel going forward. After 48 minutes, the series is either tied or
almost decided, with very little middle ground. The tension is
momentous.
We have two such Game 4s in these otherwise very boring conference
finals -- starting Monday night in Cleveland. If the Cavs win, they go
to Boston with the world's best player, momentum, and very rational
confidence -- as opposed to the irrational brand that drives every
Jordan Crawford/Clarkson one-versus-everyone prayer. Boston cannot bank
on winning every home game (right?). If Boston wins, Cleveland stares
again into the LeBron-might-leave abyss -- only with an even deeper
deficit.
Some things to watch
• Ty Lue is riding with centers -- Tristan Thompson and the revitalized Larry Nance Jr. -- and gave both of them a clear directive in Game 3: stick with Al Horford
at all times. Horford is one of the wiliest screeners in modern NBA
history. He loves to slip picks before really setting them, or to veer
off toward the 3-point arc. He'll sometimes meander out as if to set a
screen, only to stop five feet short and force his defender to navigate a
confusing situation.
In Game 3, Thompson and Nance stopped
worrying about Boston's ball handlers, aside from perhaps a token pause
of recognition, and tracked Horford wherever he went:
They vaporized Horford. He took four shots. A total of 19 Boston
possessions ended directly via a Horford pick-and-roll, meaning one of
the two participants -- or a Celtic player one pass away -- finished the
trip with a shot, turnover, or drawn foul, per Second Spectrum tracking
data. That player was Horford only three times. Only one of those three
possessions produced a good shot.
Before Game 3, Horford had been
the last Celtic to touch the ball on almost 30 percent of possessions
in which one of his screens led directly to a shot, according to Second
Spectrum.
Still: I suspect we will see something like this anti-Horford scheme
Monday night. Boston has some obvious counters. Sticking to Horford
opens up driving lanes for Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart
(assuming the Cavs don't just go under screens against Smart), and
other ball handlers. Rozier read this in Game 3, and zoomed untouched
into the lane on a few possessions. He just failed to make plays.
Boston's
guards should amp up their off-the-bounce aggression. If they have to
shake only one defender on a pick-and-roll (their own), they should tilt
those defenders off balance before the screen -- perhaps by faking
toward it, and then darting the other way.
Horford can help them.
If Thompson and Nance take away his slips and fades, Horford is under no
obligation to use them. Just set some solid screens to open runways for
his guards. If those guards inflict more damage, Cleveland will have to
adjust -- perhaps unlocking those slips and fades again.
• One reason Boston's guards had issues making plays in traffic: There was a lot of traffic. Boston played big for much of Game 3, with either Aron Baynes, Greg Monroe, or Guerschon Yabusele
alongside Horford (Yabusele somewhat inexplicably so). Horford and
Baynes logged 12 minutes together in Game 3, their highest figure in the
series. Boston is minus-3 in 28 minutes those two have shared the floor
against Cleveland, and minus-24 in 150 such minutes over the
postseason, per NBA.com. Kevin Love, guarding those centers, did a nice job contesting shots at the rim.
Boston has been much better with Horford at center. Brad Stevens doesn't have a ton of options. With Shane Larkin injured, Boston is down to five trust-him-every-game perimeter-ish players around Horford: Rozier, Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Morris.
Even Mike D'Antoni (probably) wouldn't play just a six-man rotation.
The centers have to play some. (This depth issue may work toward Stevens
starting Baynes despite all those numbers. He has to play, and it might
be easier to just play him when you know Thompson is going to be on the
floor for extended stretches. Then again, the Cavs playing Nance -- and
rarely going to Love at center -- mitigates that a bit. Cleveland could
always go back to Love-at-center immediately when Horford rests as a
way of targeting Baynes -- something I suggested last week.)
Two
of those five players -- Morris and Smart -- are minus 3-point shooters.
Boston has been successful playing them together in smaller groups with
Horford at center, but the scoring efficiency of such lineups has dipped a ton in the playoffs -- when defenses take an extra step away from bad shooters. (Kyrie Irving's injury hurts, too.) Play those two with a center, and the offense is in mud.
Stevens should chance more time with Horford at center, and shift perhaps all of the Monroe/Yabusele minutes to Semi Ojeleye,
who can at least hit a wide-open corner 3 and absorb some of the LeBron
assignment on defense. (You don't defend LeBron. You just absorb time
trying to.)
• Cleveland also switched whenever possible on Horford pick-and-rolls, often by slotting bigger defenders -- Jeff Green,
LeBron -- onto Smart. (I wonder if we might see more of LeBron on
Rozier as the series progresses.) You could see Horford digesting that,
and searching out responses.
